Expected Value Simulator

Use this calculator to simulate placing the same bet dozens, hundreds or even thousands of times to see how your net position will always follow Expected Value.

Everything we do in matched betting works entirely because of expected value.  When you place a single bet, even when layed, you’re investing in an average expected outcome.  On one single bet, you may have a positive or negative result, but if you apply that same bet many times, it will always approach an average.

Our aim is always to invest in POSITIVE Expected Value – to increase our return we use bookmaker promotions for an edge – scroll to bottom to see some interesting simulations that help demonstrate.



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Final Expected Value
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Final Net Position
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Highest Net Position
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Lowest Net Position
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Total Wins
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Total Bonus Hits
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This calculator gives us the ability to see a sample of what would happen in various situations, obeying the LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS.

A coin flip, $10 to play, win $10 on a correct guess.

A perfect representation of 50/50 odds – a 50/50 chance of winning with $2 odds, and no edge.

Coin flip, $10 to play, win $12 on a correct guess.

A perfect representation of odds, with a clear edge – a 50/50 chance of winning with 2.1 odds.

A dice roll, $10 to play, win $50 on a correct guess.

Another perfect representation of odds, this time with up to 6 outcomes, and related 5/1 odds.

A dice roll, $10 to play, win $55 on a correct guess.

A dice roll with an edge – 1 in 6 chance of winning, with 6.50 odds.

A $50 2nd/3rd Bonus Bet, with a close match and 70% retention. 

View the EV of the very common $50 bonus bet refund when your horse runs second or third, when selecting close odds.

(View the odds here)

A $50 2nd/3rd Bonus Bet, with a close match and 70% retention.

Another view of the $50 bonus bet refund, but this time with a less desirable match.

(View the odds here)

A layed, 1 leg fails, 4 leg multi.

Using the Multi Calculator as described in our Multi guide, we’ve mapped the EV of a sequentially layed 4 leg multi, with a bonus returned for if leg misses.

An unlayed 1 leg fails, 4 leg multi.

Using the same Multi Calculator as parameters, we’ve mapped the EV of a 4 leg multi, with a bonus returned for if leg misses, but this time not layed each result.

An unlayed bet on a $10 true odds outcome.

A bet on a standard horse race, without bookmaker markup or commissions.

An unlayed bet on a $10 true odds outcome, with a 25% bookmaker markup.

A bet on a standard horse race, with a commercial bookie adding a 25% markup.