Expected Value Simulator
Use this calculator to simulate placing the same bet dozens, hundreds or even thousands of times to see how your net position will always follow Expected Value.
Everything we do in matched betting works entirely because of expected value. When you place a single bet, even when layed, you’re investing in an average expected outcome. On one single bet, you may have a positive or negative result, but if you apply that same bet many times, it will always approach an average.
Our aim is always to invest in POSITIVE Expected Value – to increase our return we use bookmaker promotions for an edge – scroll to bottom to see some interesting simulations that help demonstrate.
This calculator gives us the ability to see a sample of what would happen in various situations, obeying the LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS.
A perfect representation of 50/50 odds – a 50/50 chance of winning with $2 odds, and no edge.
A perfect representation of odds, with a clear edge – a 50/50 chance of winning with 2.1 odds.
Another perfect representation of odds, this time with up to 6 outcomes, and related 5/1 odds.
A dice roll with an edge – 1 in 6 chance of winning, with 6.50 odds.
View the EV of the very common $50 bonus bet refund when your horse runs second or third, when selecting close odds.
Another view of the $50 bonus bet refund, but this time with a less desirable match.
Using the same close match, view the EV of Advantage Playing the same $50 refund, with the same odds.
The Neds Backup is a relatively high EV promotion offered by Neds. We’ve mapped out the strategy here, and the strategy reflects those odds.
A bet on a standard horse race, without bookmaker markup or commissions.
A bet on a standard horse race, with a commercial bookie adding a 25% markup.