Bet365 Penalty Payback

Bet365 Penalty Payback

 

Fancy a refund on your World Cup winners bet? Using this simple technique could see you score some large profits with a very low risk profile.

Using our odds matching software you can easily identify teams with odds close to Betfair. The method is simply to back and lay and then hope that your team goes out on penalties scoring you a refund as well as winning your lay bet.

The Offer

 

Bet365’s offer – “World Cup 2018 Penalty Payback. Back a team to win and get a refund if your selection is eliminated on penaties”

If you know someone who would find this guide useful please share

 

How Can I Make Money?

 

Step 1 – Head to the Bet365 World Cup winners market

Step 2 – Find a team who’s odds at Bet365 closely matches the ‘lay odds’ at Betfair using the odds matcher

Step 3 – Back your team at Bet365

Step 4 – Lay your team on Betfair

Step 5 – If they go out on penalties then Boom!!!

What is the Expected Value of this offer?

Expected Value can be as high as $8.50 per $100 placed on your back bet at Bet365

 

 

Join Bonus Money Pro for just $1

Begin your profitable journey

You can make risk-free profits by betting safely even if you have never placed a bet before. You will be shocked by how easy this is to learn! You could earn $50, $200, or up to $500 in the next few hours.

Trial Bonus Money Pro for just $1

The method in more detail

How to Take Advantage

Useful pointers

  • You are able to get large bets on this market at Bet365 currently the maximum win limit is $6000 (e.g at odds of 5 the max bet is $1500 to return $7500)
  • You are able to bet on more than one team
  • You can place bets and qualify for the offer right up until the final kick offs at 1AM 16th July 2018
  • Get odds as close to Betfair as possible so that your qualifying loss is minimised
  • This offer favours being on favourites as they will more likely have odds closer to Betfair as well as being more likely to play more games therefore more chance of going out on penalties

What you will need

  • Bet365 account
  • Betfair Account
  • Oddsmatcher

Skill Level

Beginner

Risks Involved

This is a fairly straightforward offer but ensure you have your back and lay bets placed correctly. If you are new to matched betting please take a read of our matched betting guide

Ensure you are eligible for promotions at Bet365 so that if any team you select

Terms of the offer

Full terms of the offer can and should be checked on the Bet365 site here are a couple of key terms of the offer as displayed on Bet365s page Thursday 28th June 2018.

Bet365 Penalty Payback Terms & Conditions
  • This offer is only available to new and eligible customers.
  • This offer is available on Win and Each Way bets on the World Cup 2018 To Win Outright market until the final kicks off at 16:00 UK Time on Sunday 15th July.
  • This offer will not apply where a stake has been fully Cashed Out. Where a stake has been partially Cashed Out only the remaining active stake will be refunded.
  • Bets placed from your Withdrawable Balance will be refunded to your Withdrawable Balance and bets placed using Bet Credits will be refunded as Bet Credits.
  • If a qualifying bet is edited using our Edit Bet feature prior to kick-off and the team you back is eliminated on penalties, only the new stake will be refunded. Where a bet has been edited to include or amend a selection for an event that is In-Play, the offer will no longer apply.

Step 1 – Head to the Bet365 World Cup winners market

It’s easy to find on the Bet365 website. The image below shows the odds they offered on 28th June 2018 at 2pm

Bet365 Penalty Payback

Step 2 -Find a team who’s odds at Bet365 closely matches the ‘lay odds’ at Betfair using the odds matcher

The next step is to find a team whose odds closely matches the odds you can gain at Bet365. We would recommend keeping the qualifying cost under 10%. The odds are in the table below but aren’t currently being fed live and were correct at 7PM 29th June

TeamBet365Betfair LayBetLayLiabilityQualifying CostEVROI
Brazil4.55.3$1,714.29$1,469.39$6,318.37-$318.37$62.760.78%
Spain55.8$1,500.00$1,304.35$6,260.87-$260.87$69.290.89%
Belgium7.58.4$923.08$829.11$6,135.42-$135.42$63.050.89%
England8.59$800.00$759.78$6,078.21-$78.21$86.451.26%
France911$750.00$616.44$6,164.38-$164.38$7.060.10%
Argentina1317.5$500.00$372.49$6,146.13-$146.13-$24.98-0.38%
Croatia1114$600.00$473.12$6,150.54-$150.54-$9.81-0.15%
Uruguay2326$272.73$241.72$6,043.09-$43.09$16.130.26%
Portugal2629$240.00$215.54$6,035.23-$35.23$16.370.26%
Colombia2326$272.73$241.72$6,043.09-$43.09$16.130.26%
Switzerland3448$181.82$128.92$6,059.34-$59.34-$14.12-0.23%
Mexico6785$90.91$71.70$6,022.79-$22.79-$1.47-0.02%
Russia6775$90.91$81.27$6,013.71-$13.71$5.910.10%
Sweden6775$90.91$81.27$6,013.71-$13.71$5.910.10%
Denmark81120$75.00$50.65$6,026.89-$26.89-$7.78-0.13%
Japan126320$48.00$18.90$6,030.04-$30.04-$15.41-0.25%

Step 3 – Back your team at Bet365

Back your selected team at Bet365. We would recommend always placing your back bet before placing your lay bet

Step 4 – Lay your team on Betfair

Ensure your lay amount is exactly equal so that your qualifying cost is the same regardless of your team winning the World Cup or not. Our odds matching software calculates this stake for you automatically and includes Betfairs commission.

Step 5 – If they go out on penalties then Boom!!!

If the team you backed goes out on penalties then its Boom Time as your back bet at Bet365 will get refunded and your lay bet at Betfair will have won.

If not you will have lost your qualifying cost amount. This offer is not going to hit on every team.

If you want more help with this offer please join in the discussion in the community or jump on live chat to get some one on one support

What sets us apart

With the Bonus Money Pro service we can take anyone including you no matter your level of knowledge and show you how to add hundreds of dollars extra profit per week.

By joining Bonus Money Pro you also gain access to our Pro community, odds matching software, offer calendar and personal support.

Trial Bonus Money Pro for just $1

Calculating the Expected Value of this offer

Stats for Penalty Shoot outs at the World Cup on Wikipedia show that since the World Cup has had 16 knockout matches (from 1986) an average of 3.125 teams has gone out on penalties each tournament. The lowest number of teams going out is 2 the largest has been 4.

So the EV of this offer has been calculated by saying on average 3 teams will go out on penalties per World Cup and giving each team an equal chance of this happening to.

This is a very simplified version of EV as it is likely to have higher EV on teams that are favourites as they are likely to play in more games.

Making the offer have less risk

If you are certain that you aren’t promo banned at Bet365 then you can reduce your qualifying cost by laying the team you have bet on going out on penalties in any game. Say you had backed a team for $150 and they were odds of 10 to go out on penalties in the next game you could lay them for $15 (150/10) meaning you gain $15 profit minus commission regardless of whether they go out on penalties or not.