Why do bookies promo ban when we are trying to lose most of the time to get our funds in to Betfair?
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The idea with matched betting isn’t really to lose on the bookies site. It is to take value from the promotions that are offered putting the odds in the favour off a matched bettor. This is why you will see us constantly refer to ‘Expected Value’ (The amount of money on average you would expect to make from the offer).
It is certainly easier if the bet at the bookmaker loses and you have the funds go directly to Betfair as that means there is no turnover requirements and you can quickly use the funds again for other offers. However, you can’t choose whether a bet wins at the bookmaker or not. If you could there would be no need to matched bet as you would simply lay bets that were going to lose on Betfair and make profits.
It really doesn’t matter if you are betting at odds of 1.5 or 15. The percentage chance of the money ending up at the bookmaker is directly correlated to the true odds of the bet. For example if the lay odds are 15 on Betfair and you manage to back at 15 on the bookmaker then on average 14 out of 15 times the money will end up in Betfair but on one in fifteen occasions you will end up with 15 times the amount of money in the bookmaker account.
The value and profit we are making comes directly from the bookmaker offering either enhanced odds or a promotion so they are the ones we are taking profit from. It is for this reason along with any other forms of taking value from a bookie that will see you banned from promotions and betting limits reduced. We use Betfair to reduce the variance that comes with betting making it a much smoother ride for profit. For this sanity procedure we pay a commission to Betfair. In the community you will see people talk about ‘Advantage Play’ they are referring to not laying on Betfair. In the longer term people that took exactly the same bets as if they were laying would end up ith more profit as they aren’t paying commission but it is really only suitable for people with large bankrolls and people not averse and able to cope with the rollercoaster ride that is variance.
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